Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 65.78%. A draw had a probability of 19.6% and a win for Gremio had a probability of 14.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.41%) and 2-1 (9.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.27%), while for a Gremio win it was 0-1 (4.36%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Palmeiras would win this match.
-0.06) 
0.06) 
