Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 69.15%. A draw had a probability of 18.5% and a win for America Mineiro had a probability of 12.32%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.97%) and 2-1 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.8%), while for an America Mineiro win it was 0-1 (4.02%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Palmeiras would win this match.
-0.33) 
0.23) 
