Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Parma win with a probability of 56%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for Brescia had a probability of 19.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Parma win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.34%) and 2-1 (9.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.62%), while for a Brescia win it was 0-1 (7.21%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Parma would win this match.
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