Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Parma win with a probability of 41.34%. A win for Ternana had a probability of 31.36% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Parma win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.5%) and 0-2 (7.66%). The likeliest Ternana win was 1-0 (9.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Parma would win this match.
-0.05) 
0.05) 
