Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Parma win with a probability of 37.32%. A win for Cittadella had a probability of 34.63% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Parma win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.9%) and 0-2 (6.9%). The likeliest Cittadella win was 1-0 (10.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Parma would win this match.
0.01) 
-0.02) 
