Buoyed by their huge win over Chaves, Portimonense will head into the weekend with renewed belief as they look to pull clear of the relegation zone. The Alvinegros' home advantage should give them an extra edge here and we see them coming away with a narrow victory in front of their home supporters.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Casa Pia win with a probability of 42.78%. A win for Portimonense had a probability of 31.1% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Casa Pia win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.87%) and 0-2 (7.53%). The likeliest Portimonense win was 1-0 (8.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.42%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood.
0.15) 
-0.03) 
