Portimonense and Casa Pia will be looking to quickly bounce back from their respective cup disappointments and mark their return to the Primeira Liga on a high. However, Martin's side have found a way to grind out results away from home this season and we predict that they will come away with a slender victory on Wednesday against an out-of-sorts Portimonense side.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portimonense win with a probability of 47.52%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 27.07% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portimonense win was 1-0 with a probability of 11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.31%) and 2-0 (8.48%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 0-1 (7.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.08%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Casa Pia in this match.
0.6) 
-0.14) 
