SM
| Current Group J Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Portugal | 9 | 32 | 27 |
| 2 | Slovakia | 9 | 8 | 19 |
| 3 | Luxembourg | 9 | -7 | 14 |
| 4 | Iceland | 9 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 9 | -10 | 9 |
| 6 | Liechtenstein | 9 | -26 | 0 |
| Current Group J Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Portugal | 9 | 32 | 27 |
| 2 | Slovakia | 9 | 8 | 19 |
| 3 | Luxembourg | 9 | -7 | 14 |
| 4 | Iceland | 9 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 9 | -10 | 9 |
| 6 | Liechtenstein | 9 | -26 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portugal win with a probability of 74.36%. A draw had a probability of 15.5% and a win for Iceland had a probability of 10.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portugal win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.3%) and 2-1 (9.2%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.21%), while for a Iceland win it was 1-2 (3.03%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Portugal in this match.
| Result | ||
| Portugal | Draw | Iceland |
74.36% ( 0.05) | 15.5% ( -0.02) | 10.15% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 52.48% ( -0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.94% ( -0.01) | 34.06% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.06% ( -0) | 55.94% ( 0) |
| Portugal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.22% ( 0.01) | 7.78% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 72.35% ( 0.02) | 27.65% ( -0.02) |
| Iceland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.91% ( -0.06) | 43.09% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.63% ( -0.05) | 79.37% ( 0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Portugal | Draw | Iceland |
| 2-0 @ 10.93% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 9.3% ( 0.01)2-1 @ 9.2% ( -0.01)1-0 @ 8.56% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 7.83% 4-0 @ 5.94% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 5% ( 0)3-2 @ 3.3% ( -0)5-0 @ 3.03% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 2.55% ( 0)4-2 @ 2.11% ( -0)6-0 @ 1.29% ( 0)6-1 @ 1.09% ( 0)5-2 @ 1.08% ( -0)Other @ 3.15% Total : 74.36% | 1-1 @ 7.21% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 3.87% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 3.35% ( 0)3-3 @ 0.93% ( -0)Other @ 0.14% Total : 15.5% | 1-2 @ 3.03% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 2.82% ( -0)0-2 @ 1.19% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.09% ( -0)Other @ 2.02% Total : 10.15% |
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