SM
| Current Group J Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Portugal | 10 | 34 | 30 |
| 2 | Slovakia | 10 | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | Luxembourg | 10 | -6 | 17 |
| 4 | Iceland | 10 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 10 | -11 | 9 |
| 6 | Liechtenstein | 10 | -27 | 0 |
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Belgium | 8 | 18 | 20 |
| 2 | Austria | 8 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Sweden | 8 | 2 | 10 |
| 4 | Azerbaijan | 8 | -10 | 7 |
| 5 | Estonia | 8 | -20 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portugal win with a probability of 75.98%. A draw had a probability of 14.7% and a win for Sweden had a probability of 9.35%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portugal win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.52%) and 2-1 (8.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.78%), while for a Sweden win it was 1-2 (2.83%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Portugal would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Portugal | Draw | Sweden |
75.98% ( 0.69) | 14.66% ( -0.45) | 9.35% ( -0.25) |
| Both teams to score 52.55% ( 0.81) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 67.6% ( 1.49) | 32.4% ( -1.5) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 45.97% ( 1.72) | 54.03% ( -1.72) |
| Portugal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.93% ( 0.47) | 7.07% ( -0.48) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 74.2% ( 1.25) | 25.79% ( -1.26) |
| Sweden Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.54% ( 0.58) | 43.45% ( -0.59) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.33% ( 0.48) | 79.67% ( -0.49) |
| Score Analysis |
| Portugal | Draw | Sweden |
| 2-0 @ 10.78% ( -0.31) 3-0 @ 9.52% ( -0.04)2-1 @ 8.99% ( -0.12)1-0 @ 8.14% ( -0.45)3-1 @ 7.94% ( 0.1)4-0 @ 6.31% ( 0.13)4-1 @ 5.26% ( 0.19)5-0 @ 3.34% ( 0.15)3-2 @ 3.31% ( 0.09)5-1 @ 2.79% ( 0.17)4-2 @ 2.19% ( 0.12)6-0 @ 1.48% ( 0.1)6-1 @ 1.23% ( 0.1)5-2 @ 1.16% ( 0.09)Other @ 3.57% Total : 75.99% | 1-1 @ 6.78% ( -0.26) 2-2 @ 3.74% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 3.07% ( -0.25)3-3 @ 0.92% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.14% Total : 14.66% | 1-2 @ 2.83% ( -0.06) 0-1 @ 2.56% ( -0.17)0-2 @ 1.07% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 1.04% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.86% Total : 9.35% |
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