Though Leipzig have not been particularly prolific in front of goal, their defensive record is exceptional, and they could keep a clean sheet on Tuesday.
Additionally, given the hosts' strong pedigree in the DFB-Pokal in recent seasons, it would be surprising if they were eliminated at such an early stage of the competition.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 50.88%. A win for St Pauli had a probability of 26.2% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.42%) and 2-0 (7.69%). The likeliest St Pauli win was 1-2 (6.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.53%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.
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