SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 42.32%. A win for Freiburg had a probability of 33.12% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.46%) and 0-2 (6.6%). The likeliest Freiburg win was 2-1 (7.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.45%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that St Pauli would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Freiburg | Draw | St Pauli |
33.12% ( -0.01) | 24.56% ( 0.13) | 42.32% ( -0.13) |
| Both teams to score 58.6% ( -0.48) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.74% ( -0.63) | 44.26% ( 0.63) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.36% ( -0.61) | 66.63% ( 0.61) |
| Freiburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.17% ( -0.31) | 25.82% ( 0.31) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.21% ( -0.42) | 60.79% ( 0.41) |
| St Pauli Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79% ( -0.33) | 21% ( 0.32) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.23% ( -0.51) | 53.77% ( 0.51) |
| Score Analysis |
| Freiburg | Draw | St Pauli |
| 2-1 @ 7.76% 1-0 @ 7.34% ( 0.14)2-0 @ 4.97% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 3.5% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 2.73% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 2.24% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.19% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 0.93% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.47% Total : 33.12% | 1-1 @ 11.45% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 6.05% ( -0.06)0-0 @ 5.42% ( 0.15)3-3 @ 1.42% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.21% Total : 24.55% | 1-2 @ 8.94% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 8.46% ( 0.15)0-2 @ 6.6% ( 0.05)1-3 @ 4.65% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 3.44% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 3.15% ( -0.06)1-4 @ 1.82% ( -0.04)0-4 @ 1.34% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 1.23% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.69% Total : 42.32% |
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