SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lens win with a probability of 41.4%. A win for Saint-Etienne had a probability of 32.51% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lens win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.74%) and 0-2 (7.17%). The likeliest Saint-Etienne win was 1-0 (8.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.4%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lens would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Saint-Etienne | Draw | Lens |
32.51% ( -0) | 26.09% ( 0.05) | 41.4% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 53.21% ( -0.18) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.84% ( -0.23) | 51.16% ( 0.23) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.99% ( -0.2) | 73% ( 0.2) |
| Saint-Etienne Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.42% ( -0.12) | 29.57% ( 0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.39% ( -0.14) | 65.6% ( 0.14) |
| Lens Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.56% ( -0.13) | 24.44% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.12% ( -0.18) | 58.87% ( 0.18) |
| Score Analysis |
| Saint-Etienne | Draw | Lens |
| 1-0 @ 8.81% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 7.56% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 5.36% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 3.07% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 2.18% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.16% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 0.94% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.44% Total : 32.51% | 1-1 @ 12.4% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 7.23% ( 0.07)2-2 @ 5.32% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 1.02% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.12% Total : 26.08% | 0-1 @ 10.18% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 8.74% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 7.17% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 4.11% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 3.37% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.5% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 1.45% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 1.19% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.69% Total : 41.39% |
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