SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brest win with a probability of 44.77%. A win for Saint-Etienne had a probability of 29.06% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brest win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.01%) and 2-0 (8.09%). The likeliest Saint-Etienne win was 0-1 (8.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.43%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Brest would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Brest | Draw | Saint-Etienne |
44.77% ( 0.08) | 26.16% ( 0.08) | 29.06% ( -0.16) |
| Both teams to score 51.42% ( -0.33) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.24% ( -0.39) | 52.76% ( 0.39) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.61% ( -0.33) | 74.39% ( 0.33) |
| Brest Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.53% ( -0.13) | 23.47% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.5% ( -0.19) | 57.49% ( 0.19) |
| Saint-Etienne Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.19% ( -0.32) | 32.81% ( 0.32) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.62% ( -0.36) | 69.37% ( 0.36) |
| Score Analysis |
| Brest | Draw | Saint-Etienne |
| 1-0 @ 11.16% ( 0.13) 2-1 @ 9.01% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 8.09% ( 0.06)3-1 @ 4.36% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 3.91% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.43% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 1.58% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.42% ( 0)Other @ 2.83% Total : 44.77% | 1-1 @ 12.43% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 7.7% ( 0.12)2-2 @ 5.02% ( -0.05)3-3 @ 0.9% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.15% | 0-1 @ 8.58% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 6.93% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 4.78% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 2.58% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 1.87% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 1.78% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.55% Total : 29.06% |
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