Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Saint-Etienne win with a probability of 57.68%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Troyes had a probability of 19.33%.
The most likely scoreline for a Saint-Etienne win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.5%) and 2-1 (9.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.93%), while for a Troyes win it was 0-1 (6.08%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Saint-Etienne would win this match.
0.09) 
-0.16) 
