Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Troyes win with a probability of 37.96%. A win for Ajaccio had a probability of 34.79% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Troyes win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.16%) and 2-0 (6.82%). The likeliest Ajaccio win was 0-1 (10.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.91%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Troyes would win this match.
-0.05) 
0.01) 
