SM
| Current League C Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Anguilla | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Bonaire | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Saint Martin | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Current League B Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Saint Kitts and Nevis | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Saint Lucia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Guadeloupe | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Sint Maarten | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Saint Martin win with a probability of 53.73%. A win for Saint Lucia had a probability of 25.67% and a draw had a probability of 20.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Saint Martin win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.59%) and 2-0 (6.25%). The likeliest Saint Lucia win was 1-2 (6.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.42%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Saint Martin | Draw | Saint Lucia |
53.73% ( 0.14) | 20.6% ( -0.3) | 25.67% ( 0.16) |
| Both teams to score 67.96% ( 1.34) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 70.18% ( 1.66) | 29.82% ( -1.66) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 49.02% ( 1.98) | 50.98% ( -1.97) |
| Saint Martin Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.54% ( 0.59) | 11.46% ( -0.59) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 63.72% ( 1.27) | 36.28% ( -1.27) |
| Saint Lucia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.75% ( 1.01) | 23.24% ( -1.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.84% ( 1.45) | 57.16% ( -1.44) |
| Score Analysis |
| Saint Martin | Draw | Saint Lucia |
| 2-1 @ 9.12% ( -0.15) 3-1 @ 6.59% ( 0.05)2-0 @ 6.25% ( -0.29)1-0 @ 5.77% ( -0.41)3-2 @ 4.81% ( 0.17)3-0 @ 4.51% ( -0.1)4-1 @ 3.57% ( 0.11)4-2 @ 2.6% ( 0.15)4-0 @ 2.45% ( 0)5-1 @ 1.55% ( 0.08)4-3 @ 1.27% ( 0.11)5-2 @ 1.13% ( 0.09)5-0 @ 1.06% ( 0.03)Other @ 3.07% Total : 53.73% | 1-1 @ 8.42% ( -0.34) 2-2 @ 6.65% ( 0.09)0-0 @ 2.66% ( -0.26)3-3 @ 2.34% ( 0.15)Other @ 0.53% Total : 20.6% | 1-2 @ 6.14% ( -0.06) 0-1 @ 3.89% ( -0.25)2-3 @ 3.24% ( 0.14)1-3 @ 2.99% ( 0.06)0-2 @ 2.84% ( -0.1)0-3 @ 1.38% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.18% ( 0.08)1-4 @ 1.09% ( 0.05)Other @ 2.93% Total : 25.67% |
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