SM
| Current Group H Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Slovenia | 10 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Denmark | 10 | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | Finland | 10 | 8 | 18 |
| 4 | Kazakhstan | 10 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Northern Ireland | 10 | -4 | 9 |
| 6 | San Marino | 10 | -28 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cyprus win with a probability of 41.76%. A win for San Marino had a probability of 32.34% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cyprus win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.8%) and 0-2 (7.17%). The likeliest San Marino win was 1-0 (8.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.3%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Cyprus would win this match.
| Result | ||
| San Marino | Draw | Cyprus |
32.34% ( 1.21) | 25.89% ( 0.3) | 41.76% ( -1.51) |
| Both teams to score 53.79% ( -0.49) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.61% ( -0.85) | 50.39% ( 0.85) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.67% ( -0.76) | 72.33% ( 0.76) |
| San Marino Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.7% ( 0.38) | 29.3% ( -0.39) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.73% ( 0.47) | 65.27% ( -0.47) |
| Cyprus Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.08% ( -1.11) | 23.91% ( 1.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.87% ( -1.62) | 58.13% ( 1.62) |
| Score Analysis |
| San Marino | Draw | Cyprus |
| 1-0 @ 8.6% ( 0.38) 2-1 @ 7.55% ( 0.17)2-0 @ 5.28% ( 0.29)3-1 @ 3.09% ( 0.1)3-2 @ 2.21% ( 0)3-0 @ 2.16% ( 0.14)4-1 @ 0.95% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.5% Total : 32.34% | 1-1 @ 12.3% ( 0.15) 0-0 @ 7.01% ( 0.24)2-2 @ 5.4% ( -0.05)3-3 @ 1.05% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.89% | 0-1 @ 10.02% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 8.8% ( -0.18)0-2 @ 7.17% ( -0.22)1-3 @ 4.2% ( -0.23)0-3 @ 3.42% ( -0.23)2-3 @ 2.58% ( -0.11)1-4 @ 1.5% ( -0.13)0-4 @ 1.22% ( -0.12)2-4 @ 0.92% ( -0.07)Other @ 1.92% Total : 41.75% |
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