SM
| Current Group H Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Denmark | 9 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Slovenia | 9 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Kazakhstan | 9 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | Finland | 9 | 7 | 15 |
| 5 | Northern Ireland | 9 | -6 | 6 |
| 6 | San Marino | 9 | -27 | 0 |
| Current Group H Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Denmark | 9 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Slovenia | 9 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Kazakhstan | 9 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | Finland | 9 | 7 | 15 |
| 5 | Northern Ireland | 9 | -6 | 6 |
| 6 | San Marino | 9 | -27 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Finland win with a probability of 93.79%. A draw had a probability of 4.9% and a win for San Marino had a probability of 1.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Finland win was 0-3 with a probability of 14.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-4 (13.7%) and 0-2 (12.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (2.28%), while for a San Marino win it was 1-0 (0.62%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Finland would win this match.
| Result | ||
| San Marino | Draw | Finland |
1.28% ( 0.12) | 4.93% ( 0.11) | 93.79% ( -0.22) |
| Both teams to score 28.01% ( 2.11) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 76.12% ( 0.83) | 23.88% ( -0.83) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 56.55% ( 1.1) | 43.44% ( -1.1) |
| San Marino Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 28.75% ( 2.15) | 71.24% ( -2.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 4.6% ( 0.7) | 95.4% ( -0.7) |
| Finland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 97.41% ( 0.07) | 2.58% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 87.97% ( 0.25) | 12.03% ( -0.25) |
| Score Analysis |
| San Marino | Draw | Finland |
| Other @ 1.28% Total : 1.28% | 1-1 @ 2.28% ( 0.1) 0-0 @ 1.84% ( -0.11)Other @ 0.81% Total : 4.93% | 0-3 @ 14.99% ( -0.52) 0-4 @ 13.7% ( -0.37)0-2 @ 12.3% ( -0.52)0-5 @ 10.01% ( -0.21)0-1 @ 6.73% ( -0.34)0-6 @ 6.11% ( -0.08)1-3 @ 5.08% ( 0.28)1-4 @ 4.65% ( 0.29)1-2 @ 4.17% ( 0.21)1-5 @ 3.4% ( 0.24)0-7 @ 3.19% ( -0.02)1-6 @ 2.07% ( 0.16)0-8 @ 1.46% ( 0)1-7 @ 1.08% ( 0.09)Other @ 4.85% Total : 93.78% |
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