J1 League | Gameweek 23
Jul 14, 2024 at 10.30am UK
EDION Stadium
We said: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-0 Avispa Fukuoka
Following a morale-boosting win in the cup, Sanfrecce should be confident of repeating the trick this weekend, despite facing a step-up in quality.
Avispa will be happy to be on the road after back-to-back home defeats, but we do not believe that things will get immediately better for the visitors on Sunday.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sanfrecce Hiroshima win with a probability of 59.58%. A draw had a probability of 23.4% and a win for Avispa Fukuoka had a probability of 16.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sanfrecce Hiroshima win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.93%) and 2-1 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.01%), while for an Avispa Fukuoka win it was 0-1 (6.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Sanfrecce Hiroshima in this match.
| Result |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | Draw | Avispa Fukuoka |
59.58% ( 0.11) | 23.43% ( -0.02) | 16.99% ( -0.09) |
| Both teams to score 45.28% ( -0.09) |
| 46.39% ( -0.03) | 53.6% ( 0.03) |
| 24.89% ( -0.03) | 75.1% ( 0.02) |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima Goals |
| 82.29% ( 0.03) | 17.7% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 51.64% ( 0.05) | 48.36% ( -0.05) |
| 55.02% ( -0.13) | 44.97% ( 0.13) |
