While Bahia have made a very promising start to the 2024 league season, their away record is much less impressive with only one win secured in six outings.
Sao Paulo, while not at their absolute best this term, have earned the majority of their points here at MorumBIS, losing only once in their last five home games. This looks a very even contest on paper and we feel there will be nothing to split these sides at the final whistle.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 58.19%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Bahia had a probability of 18.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11%) and 2-1 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.03%), while for a Bahia win it was 0-1 (6.25%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sao Paulo would win this match.
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