Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahia win with a probability of 41.89%. A win for Sao Paulo had a probability of 30.99% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bahia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.59%) and 2-0 (7.74%). The likeliest Sao Paulo win was 0-1 (9.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.84%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood.
-0.2) 
0.26) 
