SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newell's Old Boys win with a probability of 35.99%. A win for Sarmiento had a probability of 32.93% and a draw had a probability of 31.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newell's Old Boys win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.17%) and 1-2 (6.87%). The likeliest Sarmiento win was 1-0 (13.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (13.88%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 14.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Newell's Old Boys in this match.
| Result | ||
| Sarmiento | Draw | Newell's Old Boys |
32.93% ( 0.59) | 31.07% ( -0.14) | 35.99% ( -0.46) |
| Both teams to score 39.33% ( 0.4) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 31.64% ( 0.43) | 68.36% ( -0.44) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 13.83% ( 0.28) | 86.17% ( -0.29) |
| Sarmiento Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.64% ( 0.69) | 38.36% ( -0.7) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.88% ( 0.66) | 75.11% ( -0.66) |
| Newell's Old Boys Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.8% ( -0.07) | 36.19% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.02% ( -0.07) | 72.97% ( 0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sarmiento | Draw | Newell's Old Boys |
| 1-0 @ 13.3% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 6.48% ( 0.13)2-0 @ 6.37% ( 0.14)3-1 @ 2.07% ( 0.08)3-0 @ 2.04% ( 0.08)3-2 @ 1.05% ( 0.04)Other @ 1.62% Total : 32.93% | 0-0 @ 13.88% ( -0.22) 1-1 @ 13.52% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 3.29% ( 0.06)Other @ 0.38% Total : 31.07% | 0-1 @ 14.1% ( -0.26) 0-2 @ 7.17% ( -0.14)1-2 @ 6.87% ( -0)0-3 @ 2.43% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 2.33% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.12% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.97% Total : 35.98% |
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