SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Twente win with a probability of 58.73%. A draw had a probability of 21.2% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 20.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Twente win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.98%) and 0-1 (8.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.77%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 2-1 (5.39%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Twente would win this match.
| Result | ||
| SBV Excelsior | Draw | FC Twente |
20.1% ( 0.18) | 21.17% ( 0.13) | 58.73% ( -0.31) |
| Both teams to score 58.03% ( -0.15) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.56% ( -0.34) | 39.44% ( 0.34) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.22% ( -0.36) | 61.78% ( 0.36) |
| SBV Excelsior Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.83% ( -0.01) | 33.17% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.22% ( -0.01) | 69.77% ( 0.02) |
| FC Twente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.84% ( -0.2) | 13.16% ( 0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 60.15% ( -0.41) | 39.85% ( 0.41) |
| Score Analysis |
| SBV Excelsior | Draw | FC Twente |
| 2-1 @ 5.39% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 4.82% ( 0.07)2-0 @ 2.66% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 2.01% ( -0)3-1 @ 1.98% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 0.98% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.27% Total : 20.11% | 1-1 @ 9.77% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 5.47% ( -0)0-0 @ 4.37% ( 0.07)3-3 @ 1.36% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.21% Total : 21.17% | 1-2 @ 9.91% ( 0) 0-2 @ 8.98% ( 0.01)0-1 @ 8.85% ( 0.07)1-3 @ 6.7% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 6.07% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 3.7% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 3.4% ( -0.05)0-4 @ 3.08% ( -0.04)2-4 @ 1.87% ( -0.03)1-5 @ 1.38% ( -0.03)0-5 @ 1.25% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.56% Total : 58.73% |
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