SM
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Nigeria | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Egypt | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Sudan | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 4 | Guinea-Bissau | 3 | -3 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Congo DR win with a probability of 52.41%. A draw had a probability of 27.7% and a win for Sudan had a probability of 19.89%.
The most likely scoreline for a Congo DR win was 0-1 with a probability of 16.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.5%) and 1-2 (8.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.22%), while for a Sudan win it was 1-0 (8.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Sudan | Draw | Congo DR |
19.89% ( 0.11) | 27.71% ( 0.06) | 52.41% ( -0.17) |
| Both teams to score 39.05% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 35.6% ( -0.09) | 64.4% ( 0.09) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 16.53% ( -0.06) | 83.47% ( 0.07) |
| Sudan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 52.09% ( 0.07) | 47.91% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 16.84% ( 0.05) | 83.16% ( -0.05) |
| Congo DR Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.97% ( -0.12) | 25.03% ( 0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.3% ( -0.17) | 59.7% ( 0.17) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sudan | Draw | Congo DR |
| 1-0 @ 8.83% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 4.5% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 3.25% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 1.1% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.21% Total : 19.89% | 1-1 @ 12.22% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 11.99% ( 0.04)2-2 @ 3.11% Other @ 0.38% Total : 27.7% | 0-1 @ 16.6% 0-2 @ 11.5% ( -0.04)1-2 @ 8.47% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 5.31% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 3.91% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 1.84% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 1.44% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.35% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.99% Total : 52.4% |
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