SM
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Nigeria | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Egypt | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Sudan | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 4 | Guinea-Bissau | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Mali | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Gambia | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Tunisia | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Mauritania | 3 | -7 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sudan win with a probability of 36.45%. A win for Mauritania had a probability of 32.24% and a draw had a probability of 31.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sudan win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.33%) and 2-1 (6.85%). The likeliest Mauritania win was 0-1 (13.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (14.25%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Sudan | Draw | Mauritania |
36.45% ( -5.56) | 31.31% ( 9.69) | 32.24% ( -4.13) |
| Both teams to score 38.69% ( -32.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 30.93% ( -40.22) | 69.07% ( 40.22) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 13.36% ( -36.84) | 86.63% ( 36.83) |
| Sudan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.72% ( -21.49) | 36.28% ( 21.49) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.94% ( -30.01) | 73.06% ( 30.01) |
| Mauritania Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.71% ( -22.26) | 39.29% ( 22.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.01% ( -28.82) | 75.99% ( 28.82) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sudan | Draw | Mauritania |
| 1-0 @ 14.45% ( 9.64) 2-0 @ 7.33% ( 2.73)2-1 @ 6.85% ( -1.3)3-0 @ 2.48% ( -0.45)3-1 @ 2.31% ( -2.87)3-2 @ 1.08% ( -3.51)Other @ 1.96% Total : 36.45% | 0-0 @ 14.25% ( 11.73) 1-1 @ 13.5% ( 4.98)2-2 @ 3.2% ( -4.01)Other @ 0.36% Total : 31.31% | 0-1 @ 13.31% ( 8.85) 1-2 @ 6.31% ( -1.24)0-2 @ 6.22% ( 2.27)1-3 @ 1.96% ( -2.49)0-3 @ 1.94% ( -0.39)2-3 @ 1% ( -3.26)Other @ 1.5% Total : 32.23% |
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