Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 44.11%. A win for Crawley Town had a probability of 31.32% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.86%) and 2-0 (7.03%). The likeliest Crawley Town win was 1-2 (7.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.51%). The actual scoreline of 6-0 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Swindon Town would win this match.
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