SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Exeter City win with a probability of 40.17%. A win for Crawley Town had a probability of 34.79% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Exeter City win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.67%) and 2-0 (6.41%). The likeliest Crawley Town win was 1-2 (8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Exeter City in this match.
| Result | ||
| Exeter City | Draw | Crawley Town |
40.17% ( 0.02) | 25.04% ( 0) | 34.79% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 57.34% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.9% ( -0.02) | 46.1% ( 0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.6% ( -0.02) | 68.4% ( 0.03) |
| Exeter City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.18% ( 0) | 22.82% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 43.47% ( 0) | 56.53% ( 0) |
| Crawley Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.29% ( -0.02) | 25.71% ( 0.02) |
