Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 38.89%. A win for Crawley Town had a probability of 34.89% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.45%) and 0-2 (6.65%). The likeliest Crawley Town win was 1-0 (9.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.46%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood.
