SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a The New Saints win with a probability of 88.63%. A draw had a probability of 7.3% and a win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 4.05%.
The most likely scoreline for a The New Saints win was 3-0 with a probability of 8.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 4-0 (8.23%) and 3-1 (7.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (2.9%), while for a Caernarfon Town win it was 1-2 (1.25%). The actual scoreline of 7-1 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that The New Saints would win this match.
| Result | ||
| The New Saints | Draw | Caernarfon Town |
88.63% ( 0.6) | 7.32% ( -0.4) | 4.05% ( -0.2) |
| Both teams to score 56.6% ( 0.95) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 85.26% ( 1.36) | 14.74% ( -1.36) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 69.8% ( 2.13) | 30.2% ( -2.13) |
| The New Saints Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 97.95% ( 0.25) | 2.05% ( -0.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 89.97% ( 0.95) | 10.02% ( -0.96) |
| Caernarfon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.79% ( 0.83) | 42.21% ( -0.83) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.38% ( 0.7) | 78.62% ( -0.71) |
| Score Analysis |
| The New Saints | Draw | Caernarfon Town |
| 3-0 @ 8.47% ( -0.38) 4-0 @ 8.23% ( -0.12)3-1 @ 7.31% ( -0.16)4-1 @ 7.1% ( 0.06)2-0 @ 6.54% ( -0.51)5-0 @ 6.4% ( 0.1)2-1 @ 5.64% ( -0.3)5-1 @ 5.52% ( 0.21)6-0 @ 4.15% ( 0.19)6-1 @ 3.58% ( 0.24)1-0 @ 3.37% ( -0.37)3-2 @ 3.15% ( 0)4-2 @ 3.06% ( 0.09)5-2 @ 2.38% ( 0.14)7-0 @ 2.3% ( 0.17)7-1 @ 1.99% ( 0.19)6-2 @ 1.54% ( 0.13)8-0 @ 1.12% ( 0.11)8-1 @ 0.97% ( 0.12)Other @ 5.82% Total : 88.63% | 1-1 @ 2.9% ( -0.25) 2-2 @ 2.43% ( -0.07)3-3 @ 0.91% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.08% Total : 7.32% | 1-2 @ 1.25% ( -0.08) Other @ 2.8% Total : 4.05% |
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