SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a The New Saints win with a probability of 76.85%. A draw had a probability of 14.9% and a win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 8.21%.
The most likely scoreline for a The New Saints win was 0-2 with a probability of 12.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (10.7%) and 0-1 (10.25%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.1%), while for a Caernarfon Town win it was 1-0 (2.84%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that The New Saints would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | The New Saints |
8.21% ( 0.02) | 14.93% ( -0.04) | 76.85% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 45.87% ( 0.24) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.89% ( 0.25) | 38.1% ( -0.25) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.63% ( 0.27) | 60.37% ( -0.27) |
| Caernarfon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 49.96% ( 0.23) | 50.04% ( -0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 15.31% ( 0.15) | 84.68% ( -0.16) |
| The New Saints Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.81% ( 0.06) | 8.19% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 71.31% ( 0.15) | 28.68% ( -0.15) |
| Score Analysis |
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | The New Saints |
| 1-0 @ 2.84% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 2.46% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 0.98% ( 0)Other @ 1.93% Total : 8.21% | 1-1 @ 7.1% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 4.1% ( -0.05)2-2 @ 3.08% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.66% Total : 14.93% | 0-2 @ 12.83% ( -0.07) 0-3 @ 10.7% ( -0.03)0-1 @ 10.25% ( -0.09)1-2 @ 8.88% ( 0)1-3 @ 7.41% ( 0.03)0-4 @ 6.69% 1-4 @ 4.64% ( 0.03)0-5 @ 3.35% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.57% ( 0.03)1-5 @ 2.32% ( 0.02)2-4 @ 1.61% ( 0.02)0-6 @ 1.4% ( 0.01)1-6 @ 0.97% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.24% Total : 76.85% |
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