SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a The New Saints win with a probability of 74.09%. A draw had a probability of 16% and a win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 9.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a The New Saints win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.68%) and 1-0 (9.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.55%), while for a Caernarfon Town win it was 0-1 (3.08%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that The New Saints would win this match.
| Result | ||
| The New Saints | Draw | Caernarfon Town |
74.09% ( 2.51) | 15.98% ( -0.69) | 9.92% ( -1.82) |
| Both teams to score 49.56% ( -4.31) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.71% ( -2.13) | 37.29% ( 2.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.5% ( -2.33) | 59.5% ( 2.33) |
| The New Saints Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.39% ( 0.03) | 8.61% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 70.27% ( 0.08) | 29.73% ( -0.08) |
| Caernarfon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.23% ( -4.74) | 45.77% ( 4.74) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 18.46% ( -3.96) | 81.54% ( 3.96) |
| Score Analysis |
| The New Saints | Draw | Caernarfon Town |
| 2-0 @ 11.84% ( 1.22) 3-0 @ 9.68% ( 1.01)1-0 @ 9.66% ( 0.98)2-1 @ 9.26% ( -0.21)3-1 @ 7.57% ( -0.16)4-0 @ 5.94% ( 0.63)4-1 @ 4.64% ( -0.09)3-2 @ 2.96% ( -0.49)5-0 @ 2.91% ( 0.31)5-1 @ 2.28% ( -0.04)4-2 @ 1.81% ( -0.29)6-0 @ 1.19% ( 0.13)6-1 @ 0.93% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.41% Total : 74.08% | 1-1 @ 7.55% ( -0.18) 0-0 @ 3.94% ( 0.4)2-2 @ 3.62% ( -0.6)Other @ 0.87% Total : 15.98% | 0-1 @ 3.08% ( -0.08) 1-2 @ 2.95% ( -0.49)0-2 @ 1.2% ( -0.2)2-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.31)Other @ 1.74% Total : 9.92% |
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