SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Caernarfon Town win with a probability of 43.68%. A win for Cardiff MU had a probability of 31.58% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Caernarfon Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.99%) and 2-0 (7.02%). The likeliest Cardiff MU win was 1-2 (7.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.62%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Cardiff MU |
43.68% ( 0.11) | 24.74% ( -0.04) | 31.58% ( -0.06) |
| Both teams to score 57.34% ( 0.11) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.37% ( 0.16) | 45.63% ( -0.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.04% ( 0.15) | 67.96% ( -0.14) |
| Caernarfon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.04% ( 0.11) | 20.96% ( -0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.29% ( 0.18) | 53.71% ( -0.17) |
| Cardiff MU Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.55% ( 0.04) | 27.45% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.06% ( 0.04) | 62.94% ( -0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Cardiff MU |
| 2-1 @ 9.08% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.99% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 7.02% ( 0)3-1 @ 4.73% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 3.66% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.06% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 1.85% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 1.43% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.19% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.67% Total : 43.68% | 1-1 @ 11.62% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 5.87% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 5.75% ( -0.04)3-3 @ 1.32% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.74% | 1-2 @ 7.51% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 7.44% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 4.81% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 3.24% ( -0)2-3 @ 2.53% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 2.07% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.05% Other @ 2.94% Total : 31.58% |
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