SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Connah's Quay Nomads win with a probability of 66.21%. A draw had a probability of 18.5% and a win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 15.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Connah's Quay Nomads win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.55%) and 0-1 (8.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.44%), while for a Caernarfon Town win it was 2-1 (4.31%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Connah's Quay Nomads |
15.28% ( 0) | 18.5% ( -0.03) | 66.21% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 57.59% ( 0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.63% ( 0.15) | 35.37% ( -0.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.6% ( 0.16) | 57.39% ( -0.16) |
| Caernarfon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.94% ( 0.1) | 36.05% ( -0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.17% ( 0.1) | 72.83% ( -0.1) |
| Connah's Quay Nomads Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.05% ( 0.05) | 9.94% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 67.11% ( 0.11) | 32.89% ( -0.11) |
| Score Analysis |
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Connah's Quay Nomads |
| 2-1 @ 4.31% 1-0 @ 3.66% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 1.87% ( -0)3-2 @ 1.69% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 1.46% ( 0)Other @ 2.3% Total : 15.28% | 1-1 @ 8.44% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 4.97% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 3.58% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 1.3% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.21% Total : 18.5% | 1-2 @ 9.74% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 9.55% ( -0.03)0-1 @ 8.27% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 7.5% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 7.35% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 4.33% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 4.24% ( 0)2-3 @ 3.83% ( 0.02)2-4 @ 2.21% ( 0.01)1-5 @ 2% ( 0.01)0-5 @ 1.96% ( 0)2-5 @ 1.02% ( 0.01)Other @ 4.23% Total : 66.21% |
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