Given the stakes of Thursday's match, we expect Universitario and Botafogo to take the game to each other in search of all three points. Universitario have been near-impenetrable on home turf and we see them coming away with a narrow victory.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Universitario win with a probability of 52.11%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for Botafogo had a probability of 22.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Universitario win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.27%) and 2-1 (9.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.09%), while for a Botafogo win it was 0-1 (7.86%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood.
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