Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Espanyol win with a probability of 39.5%. A win for Villarreal II had a probability of 33.39% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Espanyol win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.36%) and 0-2 (7.13%). The likeliest Villarreal II win was 1-0 (9.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.
1.86) 
-2.56) 
