SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 40.63%. A win for Porto had a probability of 31.93% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.4%) and 2-0 (7.53%). The likeliest Porto win was 0-1 (10%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.96%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Porto |
40.63% ( 1.38) | 27.44% ( 0.25) | 31.93% ( -1.64) |
| Both teams to score 48.85% ( -1.2) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.36% ( -1.31) | 56.64% ( 1.31) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.39% ( -1.07) | 77.61% ( 1.06) |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.64% ( 0.15) | 27.35% ( -0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.19% ( 0.19) | 62.81% ( -0.2) |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.25% ( -1.79) | 32.75% ( 1.79) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.69% ( -2.04) | 69.3% ( 2.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Porto |
| 1-0 @ 11.61% ( 0.62) 2-1 @ 8.4% ( 0.08)2-0 @ 7.53% ( 0.43)3-1 @ 3.63% ( 0.05)3-0 @ 3.25% ( 0.2)3-2 @ 2.03% ( -0.07)4-1 @ 1.18% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 1.05% ( 0.07)Other @ 1.95% Total : 40.63% | 1-1 @ 12.96% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 8.96% ( 0.44)2-2 @ 4.69% ( -0.19)Other @ 0.83% Total : 27.43% | 0-1 @ 10% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 7.24% ( -0.32)0-2 @ 5.58% ( -0.27)1-3 @ 2.69% ( -0.26)0-3 @ 2.08% ( -0.21)2-3 @ 1.75% ( -0.16)Other @ 2.6% Total : 31.93% |
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