SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 83.82%. A draw had a probability of 11% and a win for SC Farense had a probability of 5.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (12.11%) and 4-0 (8.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.25%), while for a SC Farense win it was 0-1 (1.8%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Porto | Draw | SC Farense |
83.82% ( -0.31) | 11.05% ( 0.16) | 5.14% ( 0.16) |
| Both teams to score 43.4% ( 0.53) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 68.47% ( 0.01) | 31.53% ( -0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 46.99% ( 0.01) | 53.01% ( -0.01) |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 94.59% ( -0.05) | 5.41% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 78.8% ( -0.16) | 21.2% ( 0.16) |
| SC Farense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 45.88% ( 0.59) | 54.12% ( -0.59) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 12.65% ( 0.36) | 87.35% ( -0.35) |
| Score Analysis |
| Porto | Draw | SC Farense |
| 2-0 @ 12.45% ( -0.1) 3-0 @ 12.11% ( -0.13)4-0 @ 8.83% ( -0.13)1-0 @ 8.54% ( -0.03)2-1 @ 7.65% ( 0.08)3-1 @ 7.44% ( 0.05)4-1 @ 5.42% ( 0.02)5-0 @ 5.15% ( -0.09)5-1 @ 3.16% ( -0)6-0 @ 2.5% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 2.28% ( 0.05)4-2 @ 1.66% ( 0.03)6-1 @ 1.54% ( -0.01)7-0 @ 1.04% ( -0.03)5-2 @ 0.97% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.06% Total : 83.81% | 1-1 @ 5.25% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 2.93% ( -0)2-2 @ 2.35% ( 0.07)Other @ 0.52% Total : 11.05% | 0-1 @ 1.8% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 1.61% ( 0.05)Other @ 1.73% Total : 5.14% |
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