Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 57.49%. A win for Porto had a probability of 22.66% and a draw had a probability of 19.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.99%) and 2-0 (6.71%). The likeliest Porto win was 1-2 (5.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
Result | ||
Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Porto |
57.49% (![]() | 19.85% (![]() | 22.66% (![]() |
Both teams to score 67.05% (![]() |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
70.52% (![]() | 29.47% (![]() |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
49.44% (![]() | 50.56% (![]() |
Sporting Lisbon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
89.63% (![]() | 10.36% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
66.15% (![]() | 33.85% (![]() |
Porto Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.8% (![]() | 25.19% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
40.07% (![]() | 59.93% (![]() |
Score Analysis |
Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Porto |
2-1 @ 9.25% (![]() 3-1 @ 6.99% ( ![]() 2-0 @ 6.71% ( ![]() 1-0 @ 5.92% ( ![]() 3-0 @ 5.07% ( ![]() 3-2 @ 4.82% ( ![]() 4-1 @ 3.96% ( ![]() 4-0 @ 2.87% ( ![]() 4-2 @ 2.73% ( ![]() 5-1 @ 1.8% ( ![]() 5-0 @ 1.3% ( ![]() 4-3 @ 1.26% ( ![]() 5-2 @ 1.24% ( ![]() Other @ 3.58% Total : 57.49% | 1-1 @ 8.16% (![]() 2-2 @ 6.37% ( ![]() 0-0 @ 2.61% ( ![]() 3-3 @ 2.21% ( ![]() Other @ 0.49% Total : 19.85% | 1-2 @ 5.62% (![]() 0-1 @ 3.6% ( ![]() 2-3 @ 2.93% ( ![]() 1-3 @ 2.58% ( ![]() 0-2 @ 2.48% ( ![]() 0-3 @ 1.14% ( ![]() 2-4 @ 1.01% ( ![]() Other @ 3.3% Total : 22.66% |
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