SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 57.49%. A win for Porto had a probability of 22.66% and a draw had a probability of 19.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.99%) and 2-0 (6.71%). The likeliest Porto win was 1-2 (5.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Porto |
57.49% ( -0.5) | 19.85% ( 0.1) | 22.66% ( 0.4) |
| Both teams to score 67.05% ( 0.2) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 70.52% ( 0.02) | 29.47% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 49.44% ( 0.02) | 50.56% ( -0.02) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.63% ( -0.12) | 10.36% ( 0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 66.15% ( -0.27) | 33.85% ( 0.26) |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.8% ( 0.32) | 25.19% ( -0.32) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.07% ( 0.44) | 59.93% ( -0.44) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Porto |
| 2-1 @ 9.25% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 6.99% ( -0.05)2-0 @ 6.71% ( -0.08)1-0 @ 5.92% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 5.07% ( -0.08)3-2 @ 4.82% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 3.96% ( -0.05)4-0 @ 2.87% ( -0.06)4-2 @ 2.73% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 1.8% ( -0.03)5-0 @ 1.3% ( -0.04)4-3 @ 1.26% ( 0.01)5-2 @ 1.24% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.58% Total : 57.49% | 1-1 @ 8.16% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 6.37% ( 0.04)0-0 @ 2.61% ( -0)3-3 @ 2.21% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.49% Total : 19.85% | 1-2 @ 5.62% ( 0.07) 0-1 @ 3.6% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 2.93% ( 0.05)1-3 @ 2.58% ( 0.06)0-2 @ 2.48% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 1.14% ( 0.03)2-4 @ 1.01% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.3% Total : 22.66% |
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