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Primeira Liga | Gameweek 4
Aug 31, 2024 at 8.30pm UK
Estadio Jose Alvalade
P

Sporting Lisbon
2 - 0
Porto

Gyokeres (72' pen.), Catamo (90+3')
Catamo (28')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Varela (30'), Gonzalez (54'), Otavio (69'), Loader (70'), Eustaquio (90+2')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Farense 0-5 Sporting Lisbon
Friday, August 23 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Porto 2-0 Rio Ave
Saturday, August 24 at 6pm in Primeira Liga

We said: Sporting Lisbon 3-2 Porto

The last five meetings between the two teams have seen a combined 19 goals scored and we anticipate another action-packed contest this weekend. While both sides have flown out of the blocks this season, Sporting Lisbon's home advantage gives them a slight edge here and we fancy them to come away with the desired result. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 57.49%. A win for Porto had a probability of 22.66% and a draw had a probability of 19.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.99%) and 2-0 (6.71%). The likeliest Porto win was 1-2 (5.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.

Result
Sporting LisbonDrawPorto
57.49% (-0.5 -0.5) 19.85% (0.097000000000001 0.1) 22.66% (0.398 0.4)
Both teams to score 67.05% (0.2 0.2)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
70.52% (0.019000000000005 0.02)29.47% (-0.021999999999998 -0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
49.44% (0.024000000000001 0.02)50.56% (-0.024999999999999 -0.02)
Sporting Lisbon Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
89.63% (-0.12 -0.12)10.36% (0.116 0.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
66.15% (-0.26900000000001 -0.27)33.85% (0.26499999999999 0.26)
Porto Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.8% (0.32000000000001 0.32)25.19% (-0.323 -0.32)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.07% (0.439 0.44)59.93% (-0.442 -0.44)
Score Analysis
    Sporting Lisbon 57.49%
    Porto 22.66%
    Draw 19.85%
Sporting LisbonDrawPorto
2-1 @ 9.25% (-0.019 -0.02)
3-1 @ 6.99% (-0.05 -0.05)
2-0 @ 6.71% (-0.076000000000001 -0.08)
1-0 @ 5.92% (-0.037 -0.04)
3-0 @ 5.07% (-0.082999999999999 -0.08)
3-2 @ 4.82% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
4-1 @ 3.96% (-0.049 -0.05)
4-0 @ 2.87% (-0.063 -0.06)
4-2 @ 2.73% (-0.008 -0.01)
5-1 @ 1.8% (-0.031 -0.03)
5-0 @ 1.3% (-0.035 -0.04)
4-3 @ 1.26% (0.0079999999999998 0.01)
5-2 @ 1.24% (-0.01 -0.01)
Other @ 3.58%
Total : 57.49%
1-1 @ 8.16% (0.023999999999999 0.02)
2-2 @ 6.37% (0.045 0.04)
0-0 @ 2.61% (-0.004 -0)
3-3 @ 2.21% (0.026 0.03)
Other @ 0.49%
Total : 19.85%
1-2 @ 5.62% (0.068000000000001 0.07)
0-1 @ 3.6% (0.029 0.03)
2-3 @ 2.93% (0.048 0.05)
1-3 @ 2.58% (0.055 0.06)
0-2 @ 2.48% (0.042 0.04)
0-3 @ 1.14% (0.03 0.03)
2-4 @ 1.01% (0.025 0.02)
Other @ 3.3%
Total : 22.66%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Farense 0-5 Sporting Lisbon
Friday, August 23 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Nacional 1-6 Sporting Lisbon
Saturday, August 17 at 6pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Sporting Lisbon 3-1 Rio Ave
Friday, August 9 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Sporting Lisbon 3-4 Porto
Saturday, August 3 at 8.15pm in Portuguese Super Cup
Last Game: Sporting Lisbon 3-0 Athletic Bilbao
Saturday, July 27 at 7.30pm in Club Friendlies 3
Last Game: Sporting Lisbon 2-1 Sevilla
Tuesday, July 23 at 8.30pm in Club Friendlies 3
Last Game: Porto 2-0 Rio Ave
Saturday, August 24 at 6pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Santa Clara 0-2 Porto
Friday, August 16 at 5pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Porto 3-0 Gil Vicente
Saturday, August 10 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Sporting Lisbon 3-4 Porto
Saturday, August 3 at 8.15pm in Portuguese Super Cup
Last Game: Porto 4-0 Al-Nassr
Sunday, July 28 at 6.30pm in Club Friendlies 1
Last Game: Sturm Graz 0-2 Porto
Tuesday, July 23 at 6pm in Club Friendlies 3


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