SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 43.26%. A win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 30.76% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.93%) and 0-2 (7.59%). The likeliest Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 (8.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.35%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Porto in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Porto.
| Result | ||
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Porto |
30.76% ( 0.07) | 25.98% ( -0.35) | 43.26% ( 0.29) |
| Both teams to score 52.87% ( 1.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.71% ( 1.44) | 51.29% ( -1.44) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.88% ( 1.25) | 73.12% ( -1.24) |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.17% ( 0.78) | 30.83% ( -0.78) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.9% ( 0.91) | 67.1% ( -0.91) |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.43% ( 0.77) | 23.57% ( -0.77) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.37% ( 1.1) | 57.64% ( -1.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Porto |
| 1-0 @ 8.55% ( -0.31) 2-1 @ 7.27% ( 0.06)2-0 @ 5.03% ( -0.07)3-1 @ 2.85% ( 0.08)3-2 @ 2.06% ( 0.11)3-0 @ 1.97% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.03% Total : 30.76% | 1-1 @ 12.35% ( -0.17) 0-0 @ 7.27% ( -0.43)2-2 @ 5.25% ( 0.16)3-3 @ 0.99% ( 0.07)Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.98% | 0-1 @ 10.5% ( -0.37) 1-2 @ 8.93% ( 0.08)0-2 @ 7.59% ( -0.09)1-3 @ 4.3% ( 0.14)0-3 @ 3.66% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 2.53% ( 0.13)1-4 @ 1.55% ( 0.08)0-4 @ 1.32% ( 0.04)2-4 @ 0.91% ( 0.07)Other @ 1.96% Total : 43.25% |
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