Recent meetings between these sides have been settled by one goal and the corresponding fixture in 22-23 ended 1-1.
However, an in-form, free-scoring Porto side — considering pre-season results in which they have netted three goals or more in eight of their last nine — should secure the points in Ponta Delgada.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 53.48%. A draw had a probability of 24.9% and a win for Santa Clara had a probability of 21.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.29%) and 1-2 (9.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.8%), while for a Santa Clara win it was 1-0 (7.34%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 10.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
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