Necaxa scored three times against the second-best defensive unit in Major League Soccer for goals conceded, and that should give them a significant confidence boost heading into this game.
We believe they will have their share of opportunities against a San Jose backline that have given up an MLS-high 61 goals in the regular season.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Jose Earthquakes win with a probability of 45.64%. A win for Necaxa had a probability of 31.05% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Jose Earthquakes win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.51%) and 2-0 (6.54%). The likeliest Necaxa win was 1-2 (7.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.52%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that San Jose Earthquakes would win this match.
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