Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Puebla win with a probability of 50.92%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Toluca had a probability of 23.02%.
The most likely scoreline for a Puebla win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.03%) and 2-1 (9.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.24%), while for a Toluca win it was 0-1 (8.14%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Puebla in this match.
