Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 46.72%. A win for Necaxa had a probability of 27.11% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.12%) and 2-0 (8.66%). The likeliest Necaxa win was 0-1 (8.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.42%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood.
