SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 41.75%. A win for Club America had a probability of 34.25% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.64%) and 2-0 (6.15%). The likeliest Club America win was 1-2 (7.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.99%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toluca would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Toluca | Draw | Club America |
41.75% ( -0.05) | 23.99% ( 0.02) | 34.25% ( 0.03) |
| Both teams to score 61% ( -0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.72% ( -0.08) | 41.27% ( 0.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.32% ( -0.08) | 63.67% ( 0.07) |
| Toluca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.99% ( -0.06) | 20% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.8% ( -0.09) | 52.19% ( 0.09) |
| Club America Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.24% ( -0.02) | 23.75% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.1% ( -0.02) | 57.89% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Toluca | Draw | Club America |
| 2-1 @ 8.84% ( -0) 1-0 @ 7.64% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 6.15% ( -0)3-1 @ 4.74% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 3.41% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 3.3% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.91% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.37% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.33% ( -0)Other @ 3.05% Total : 41.75% | 1-1 @ 10.99% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 6.36% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 4.75% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.63% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.26% Total : 23.99% | 1-2 @ 7.9% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 6.83% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 4.91% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 3.79% ( 0)2-3 @ 3.05% ( -0)0-3 @ 2.35% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.36% 2-4 @ 1.1% ( -0)Other @ 2.98% Total : 34.25% |
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