Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tigres win with a probability of 46.85%. A win for Toluca had a probability of 28.56% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tigres win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.36%) and 2-0 (7.76%). The likeliest Toluca win was 0-1 (7.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.59%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Tigres would win this match.
0.44) 
-0.13) 
