SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 72.81%. A draw had a probability of 16.2% and a win for Puebla had a probability of 11.01%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.36%) and 3-0 (8.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.52%), while for a Puebla win it was 1-2 (3.26%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toluca would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Toluca | Draw | Puebla |
72.81% ( 3.48) | 16.18% ( -1.15) | 11.01% ( -2.33) |
| Both teams to score 53.19% ( -3.46) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.21% ( -0.7) | 34.79% ( 0.69) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 43.25% ( -0.78) | 56.75% ( 0.78) |
| Toluca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.72% ( 0.59) | 8.28% ( -0.59) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 71.08% ( 1.45) | 28.91% ( -1.46) |
| Puebla Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.99% ( -4.18) | 42.01% ( 4.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.55% ( -3.84) | 78.44% ( 3.83) |
| Score Analysis |
| Toluca | Draw | Puebla |
| 2-0 @ 10.79% ( 0.94) 2-1 @ 9.36% ( -0.21)3-0 @ 8.96% ( 1.01)1-0 @ 8.67% ( 0.54)3-1 @ 7.77% ( 0.05)4-0 @ 5.58% ( 0.77)4-1 @ 4.84% ( 0.16)3-2 @ 3.37% ( -0.38)5-0 @ 2.78% ( 0.45)5-1 @ 2.41% ( 0.15)4-2 @ 2.1% ( -0.18)6-0 @ 1.15% ( 0.21)5-2 @ 1.05% ( -0.05)6-1 @ 1% ( 0.09)Other @ 2.96% Total : 72.81% | 1-1 @ 7.52% ( -0.39) 2-2 @ 4.06% ( -0.59)0-0 @ 3.48% ( 0.12)3-3 @ 0.98% ( -0.24)Other @ 0.14% Total : 16.18% | 1-2 @ 3.26% ( -0.58) 0-1 @ 3.02% ( -0.25)0-2 @ 1.31% ( -0.28)2-3 @ 1.17% ( -0.33)1-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.3)Other @ 1.31% Total : 11.01% |
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