Having given so much to get over the line in such an emotionally-charged encounter in the Champions League on Thursday, Brest may be slightly leggy against a much fresher Toulouse side who enter the game on the back of a good win last weekend.
An underwhelming start suggests Brest will not hit the same heights as last season, and another defeat here will have them awkwardly looking over their shoulder.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brest win with a probability of 46.5%. A draw had a probability of 26.9% and a win for Toulouse had a probability of 26.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brest win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.94%) and 2-1 (8.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.65%), while for a Toulouse win it was 0-1 (8.96%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Brest would win this match.
0.38) 
-0.45) 
