SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lens win with a probability of 40.35%. A win for Lyon had a probability of 35.24% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lens win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.94%) and 2-0 (6.11%). The likeliest Lyon win was 1-2 (8.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.31%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lens would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lens | Draw | Lyon |
40.35% ( 0.46) | 24.41% ( 0.08) | 35.24% ( -0.54) |
| Both teams to score 59.68% ( -0.39) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.91% ( -0.46) | 43.09% ( 0.46) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.51% ( -0.46) | 65.48% ( 0.45) |
| Lens Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.58% ( 0.02) | 21.42% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 45.57% ( 0.03) | 54.42% ( -0.04) |
| Lyon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.95% ( -0.52) | 24.05% ( 0.51) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 41.68% ( -0.73) | 58.32% ( 0.73) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lens | Draw | Lyon |
| 2-1 @ 8.71% ( 0.06) 1-0 @ 7.94% ( 0.17)2-0 @ 6.11% ( 0.13)3-1 @ 4.48% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 3.19% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 3.14% ( 0.07)4-1 @ 1.72% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.23% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.21% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.61% Total : 40.35% | 1-1 @ 11.31% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 6.21% ( -0.05)0-0 @ 5.15% ( 0.1)3-3 @ 1.52% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.23% Total : 24.41% | 1-2 @ 8.06% ( -0.07) 0-1 @ 7.34% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 5.23% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 3.83% ( -0.09)2-3 @ 2.95% ( -0.07)0-3 @ 2.49% ( -0.06)1-4 @ 1.36% ( -0.05)2-4 @ 1.05% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.92% Total : 35.24% |
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