This will be a very tricky fixture for the hosts to navigate. Not only are they facing a top-six side, but they are also just four days out from a crucial Europa League semi-final first-leg clash against Atalanta, and based on their recent performances, Gasset seems to have made the continental competition his side's primary focus, which could work in Lens' favour here. We feel this one will end level at the final whistle.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 44.93%. A win for Lens had a probability of 29.87% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.17%) and 2-0 (7.61%). The likeliest Lens win was 0-1 (7.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.94%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.
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