Lille's reshuffled defence may take a bit of time to gel with one another, but they should not be troubled by Auxerre this weekend, as Furlan's side experience a baptism of fire on their return to the big time.
The visitors may have got the better of Ligue 1 opposition in Saint-Etienne last season, but the Fonseca revolution ought to begin in winning fashion for Les Dogues here.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 58.59%. A draw had a probability of 22.9% and a win for Auxerre had a probability of 18.55%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.84%) and 2-1 (9.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.87%), while for an Auxerre win it was 0-1 (6.03%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.
0.23) 
-0.51) 
